Retailers are already preparing for the impact. Target CEO Brian Cornell recently announced that prices on produce, including strawberries and avocados, could rise as soon as next week.
The price of strawberries could be in for a steep climb, thanks to a one-two punch of economic policy and agricultural disease. Much like we saw with egg prices skyrocketing due to supply chain disruptions and disease outbreaks, strawberries may be on a similar trajectory.
The Tariff Effect
Tariff news is shifting rapidly, with steel and aluminum tariffs already in place and potential new tariffs on all goods from Canada and Mexico set to take effect by April 2. According to the Washington Post, the U.S. imports approximately $200 billion worth of food, beverages, and animal feed from these countries, along with China.
Costco Wholesale Corp. is also taking steps to reduce its reliance on Canadian imports in response to the impending tariffs.
A Fungal Threat to Domestic Strawberry Supply
Beyond tariffs, the US strawberry industry is grappling with a more immediate and biological threat: the emergence of Neopestalotiopsis, an aggressive fungal pathogen devastating strawberry crops in the U.S.
Welch Farms, LLC, an Ohio strawberry farm, recently announced on social media that they were unable to secure disease-free plants and would not have strawberries in 2025. They even cautioned, “We are not sure what the future will hold for the industry. Please say a prayer for all strawberry growers.”
The disease, which has already caused significant crop losses in Ohio, thrives in rainy and cool conditions, spreading rapidly and making it difficult for farmers to maintain healthy yields. According to experts at Ohio State University, Neo-P is an aggressive pathogen that could continue to disrupt strawberry production in the coming seasons.
The Perfect Storm for Price Increases
With Mexico being the largest exporter of strawberries to the U.S. and domestic production already under pressure from disease, the combined effects of tariffs and crop losses could send strawberry prices soaring. If importers struggle to find alternative sources and retailers pass costs onto consumers, strawberries could see an "egg-flation" moment.
Could Oishii Strawberries Benefit?
As conventional strawberry prices climb, could premium indoor-farmed strawberries like Oishii’s Omakase Berry and Koyo Berry become the new normal?
Grown in a 237,500-square-foot indoor farm in New Jersey (plus a 72,000-square-foot facility in Jersey City), Oishii’s berries are already a viral luxury, sometimes selling for $15 a pack. But if supermarket strawberries become significantly more expensive, that price might start looking surprisingly reasonable.
Would you pay at least $10 for strawberries if the alternative wasn’t much cheaper? That’s a question we may be answering sooner than we think.