The Hidden Costs of Out-of-Stocks (and How to Fix Them)

Out-of-stocks (OOS) are a problem that every brand navigates at one point or another. Just ask Chobani or Oatly. In 2011, Chobani made headlines for OOS which Melissa Stagnaro, a Chobani spokeswoman, attributed to increasing demand due to their sponsorship of the U.S. Olympic team. In the early 2020s, oat milk producers, including Oatly, faced real shortages as consumer demand outpaced supply. Right now, it's eggs!  According to a  Numerator survey, 55% of shoppers reported seeing out-of-stocks at their local grocery stores when shopping for eggs.

OOS impact everyone involved and can negatively impact an emerging brand. 

Out of Stock then Consumer Walks

A Harvard Business School and Emory University study analyzed how consumers react to stockouts using data from 71,000 shoppers across 29 countries. When faced with an out-of-stock product, shoppers do one of five things:

1. Find a substitute within the same brand (best-case scenario).
2. Buy a competing brand (direct loss of market share)
3. Delay the purchase and wait for a restock, which means a lost sale for the retailer and potentially harming your retailer relationship
4. Skip the purchase entirely, hurting revenue and future demand forecasting.
5. Go to another store—which happens 21% to 43% of the time and that store may not have your product.

How Much Do Stockouts Cost?

• Out-of-stocks cost retailers billions and stock out rates tend to hover globally at 8%.
• Studies show stockouts tend to be higher later in the day and peak at the end of the week—which is why your Sunday night Trader Joe’s run often results in empty shelves (Gruen & Corsten, 2007).
• Retailers, especially mass chains like Walmart and Target, penalize brands for consistent out-of-stocks, leading to lost shelf space and delistings.

Why do Stockouts Happen?

Most stockouts are preventable. The Harvard Business Review study found that:

• 72% of stockouts happen because of faulty in-store ordering and replenishment practices—retailers order too late, forecast demand poorly, or mismanage inventory.
• 28% of stockouts result from broader supply chain planning and replenishment issues.

How Do You Know If Your Product Is Out of Stock?

You can’t fix what you can’t measure. Here are a few ways brands attempt to track OOS:

• Act Like a Consumer: Check Instacart, store websites, or delivery apps for availability.
• Manual Audits: Sending reps to stores costs around $40 per visit—which means auditing 10,000 stores is an unsustainable $400,000+ effort.
• POS Data & Velocity Reports: Analyzing real-time sales data can help spot stockouts at scale.
• Patching with Historical Data: Estimating lost sales based on past trends is better than nothing but still reactive.

The Real Solution: Retail Data Alignment

The real problem isn’t just knowing when an item is out—it’s fixing it in real time. That requires systems that align inventory, sales, and shelf visibility data across platforms.

Computer vision (CV) tools like Trax and Repsly give brands “eyes in the store,” helping detect when shelves are empty. But visibility alone isn’t enough—you also need a way to act on that data.

That’s where Pantry AI comes in. Unlike rigid, single-solution systems, Pantry retailer data sources automate order replenishment and prevent stockouts before they happen. Whether you’re in grocery, beauty, or consumer electronics, Pantry is an distributorsand brands capture every possible sale.

The Future of Retail Is Proactive

Stockouts aren’t going away, but the right tech stack makes them predictable, measurable, and fixable. If your business is still relying on manual audits and guesswork, it’s time to rethink how you track and prevent OOS.